France’s elections showed a polarized country

 France held back the far right. No one knows what’s next.

Voters in Sunday's French parliamentary elections significantly upended the status quo, resulting in politics in France becoming more and more driven by the extremes rather than a strong center.

In addition to recording the largest turnout since 1981, the election served as a harsh warning to the far-right National Rally (RN), which emerged victorious in the first round of voting and won a significant majority in June's European Parliament elections. But in an electoral ploy to keep RN from winning, President Emmanuel Macron and his center-right Renaissance party sided with the recently formed left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NFP).

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The triumph of the rising left is indicative of France's increasingly divisive political landscape.

Despite coming in second to the NFP, Macron's centrists will need to court the left to create a government. That won't be simple, as a few NFP members have openly rejected forming an alliance with Macron's political organization.

After his party lost the European Parliament elections to the RN, Macron dissolved the National Assembly of France last month. across the first round of elections on June 30, Renaissance finished third behind the RN and a new coalition of France's left, demonstrating the extreme unpopularity of Macron's technocratic and neoliberal policies across the country.

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Even if it could have been sufficient to prevent the extreme right from gaining actual power, the new alliance wouldn't necessarily find it simple to rule. Only a few months prior, ideological and personal divides severely divided the Greens, Socialists, Communists, and France Unbowed, under the fiery and controversial leadership of politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Yet according to historical evidence, political scientist Rémi Lefebvre of the University of Lille told the New York Times that "the left always unites when there is a threat from the extreme right."

Even if the organization has reached a consensus on a platform, substantial concerns remain over leadership and the coalition's ability to rule once the RN poses a threat. That does not account for Macron and his party, which will likely be in what is known as a "cohabitation" with the left-wing alliance to rule as well, given that Macron has pledged not to resign.

France may struggle in the next weeks to put together a cabinet, but one thing is certain: Macron's centrism is not driving French politics; instead, the extreme right and left-wing are in charge.

The left, the right, and the disappearing center

In keeping with their electoral alliance, Renaissance and the New Popular Front withdrew their candidates from Sunday's contest, sending a strong message that it is the RN against all other contenders.

It was a tactic that mirrored France's long-standing social compact known as the cordon sanitaire, which successfully stopped the far right from taking control following the horrifying tyranny of the Vichy government during World War II, which collaborated with the Nazis.

And the outcomes on Sunday indicated that it was eventually fruitful. But the fact that it was required at all and that Macron is now probably dependent on the left for his ability to rule, conveys a powerful message about the current state of French politics.

Patrick Chamorel, senior resident researcher at the Stanford Center in Washington, told Vox that Macron "succeeded in creating that centrist party." But since he demolished the middle ground between the right and left, there is no other option. All of the other options were either extremely right or extremely left. And he's blowing up his own party now. Therefore, the extremes are the only things remaining.

Even though Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the RN decades ago as the National Front, the party has never more than minor until 2012, when Le Pen's daughter Marine became the party's leader and made her first presidential bid. In French politics, the RN gradually acquired credibility and appeal as Marine Le Pen received a larger percentage of the vote in Macron's victories in the 2017 and 2022 presidential contests.

Le Pen's strategy has included softening the more offensive and divisive beliefs of the RN, especially in relation to migration and antisemitism, in order to make it more digestible. In 2015, she forced her father out of the party due to his continuous denial of the Holocaust and attempts to reinterpret her father's social services reservation policy for French nationals. Public opinion has mirrored this, with support for the RN rising in almost all French municipalities since 2017.

However, the RN promoted a platform that was concentrated on denying non-citizens access to social programs. According to Sandrine Kott, a contemporary European history professor at the University of Geneva, "They want to deprive people who don't have the French nationality or people who are illegal migrants, for example, of any health coverage." Kott made this statement to Vox. On the grounds that they are depriving French-born individuals of social services, "it's very clear, it's not even hidden—it's very clear what they want, they want to exclude [migrant workers] from social apartments, social housing, and so on."

France's policies, on the right, are in line with the broader European trend. Over the past 15 years, the right has been building toward this moment. Since the far-right German party Alternative for Deutschland was founded in 2013, right-wing parties have been steadily gaining ground in Europe. Currently, the two right-wing blocs, Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) hold 131 of 720 seats in the European Parliament, an increase of 15 seats from the previous election.

But the prospect of an RN administration stoked the left's waning support. In the 2022 elections, Mélenchon, for example, finished a very close third behind Le Pen, and a coalition of the major left-wing parties offered a strong opposition to Macron in the National Assembly.

The public has now placed the left wing in a position of authority, but it lacks a mandate, which begs the issue of whether any governance can take place with the next National Assembly.

What happens now?

Raise the minimum wage, cut the retirement age to 60, and freeze the prices of necessities as part of the left-wing coalition's agenda to fight the cost-of-living crisis that has engulfed most of Europe in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak and Russia's conflict in Ukraine. It has also pledged to work for a truce in Gaza and recognize a Palestinian state, directly opposing RN, which demonizes immigrants, and has pledged to reduce immigration. Additionally, it has vowed to simplify the asylum procedure.

Even if it emerged from Sunday's elections as the most dominant single bloc, the New Popular Front's ambitious goal for the next three years may not definitely materialize. Rather, it seems probable that the changes will be implemented gradually, with the left-wing coalition depending on coalitions with other political parties to get laws passed.

Macron said he is not leaving his position as president, and his tenure as president ends in 2027. Due to his party's lack of a legislative majority, Gabriel Attal, his hand-picked prime minister, submitted his resignation on Monday. He is to remain in his position for "the moment to ensure the stability of the country," per Macron's request.

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There are a few ways to proceed. Macron may have a left-wing prime minister, or "cohabitation," as they say in French politics. Since the New Popular Front does not yet have an official leader, it is unclear who that prime minister would be. The first priority is to create a government as soon as possible, which would probably mean forming a coalition between the New Popular Front and another faction—possibly Macron's centrists, who finished in second place—though some, like Mélenchon, have ruled that out. Politicians from the NFP have declared that they will choose a candidate for prime minister within the next week.

The current scenario is unprecedented since there won't be a consistent, cohesive, and unified majority, which sets it apart from the three prior cohabitations. Furthermore, in these political conditions, there is no obvious candidate for prime minister," constitutional law expert Didier Maus told the AFP.

Macron's neoliberal, center-right policies have never fully suited to French political culture, as seen by the demonstrations against raising the retirement age that took place last year. Many French citizens felt that their right to retire would be infringed upon in the name of productivity.

France is in a unique situation as a result of everything. The only two remaining centrist parties are RN and the left-wing alliance, which is still unstable despite its strong mobilization in the run-up to the election. Macron's Renaissance party appears to be at a standstill.

That begs the issue of what will happen in the upcoming presidential election and might lead to further turmoil in the future. Either the alliance collapses or the French left assumes fresh and vigorous leadership. The future is uncertain for centrists such as Macron, and despite the RN's crushing defeat this time, it is not going away.