"Does the United States' shipment of weapons to Israel imply tacit support for its actions in Gaza?"

US concerns over Israel’s potential invasion of Rafah are overlooked as the weapons to secure its end are provided. 

The notion that U.S. President Joe Biden's pause on heavy weapons shipments to Israel indicated dissatisfaction with Tel Aviv is now in doubt, as two U.S. officials confirm that a new weapons aid package worth approximately $1 billion has been moved to the congressional review process.

Last week, Biden ordered a halt to a shipment that included 1,800 U.S.-made 2,000-pound (907 kg) bombs due to concerns they might be used by Israel in a land invasion of Rafah in southern Gaza.

The 2,000-pound bombs, among the heaviest in the U.S. arsenal, have a blast radius of 365 meters (1,200 feet) and produce razor-sharp shrapnel capable of shredding human bodies and unarmored vehicles.

Another weapons shipment, including dozens of Boeing F-15 fighter jets, is also on hold as Gregory Meeks, the senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, awaits more information on Israel’s intended use for the jets.

However, the approved shipment, which includes tank rounds, mortars, and armored tactical vehicles, supports comments made by U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Monday. Sullivan suggested that U.S. concern over the 2,000-pound bombs was primarily due to their potential for significant casualties rather than any specific worry about Israel planning a land assault on Rafah.

Rafah

As Israel’s assault on Gaza entered its eighth month, Rafah remained the last city in Gaza not yet attacked by land.

According to UNICEF, Rafah had become a refuge for about 1.5 million civilians, half of them children, who had fled the destruction of other cities like Gaza City and Khan Younis, which had been leveled by Israeli forces.

Aid organizations set up their bases in Rafah, considering it the safest zone in Gaza, despite regular Israeli air attacks.

However, since Israel intensified its attacks on Rafah earlier this month, claiming it was a stronghold for Hamas's remaining battalions, thousands of Palestinians fled eastern Rafah to an under-equipped “humanitarian zone” in al-Mawasi announced by the Israeli army.

Israel’s attack on Rafah has faced heavy criticism from some of its allies. However, the U.S. pause on a single shipment of deadly ordnance remains the only tangible expression of international concern thus far.

A U.S. investigation into Israeli violations of international law during the conflict found it "reasonable to assess" that U.S. weapons were involved in these breaches, considering Israel's heavy dependence on U.S.-manufactured arms.

According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, over the nine years leading up to 2022, 68 percent of Israel’s weaponry was supplied by the United States.

The remaining portion came from Germany and a variety of Western allies.

When contacted by Al Jazeera, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, responsible for weapons exports, stated it would continue to review export licenses on a case-by-case basis.

As of now, the US State Department has refrained from providing a comment.

Stockpiles

Israel's bombardment of Gaza, resulting in the deaths of over 35,000 Palestinians, has been supported by its supply of weapons from the United States.

Under a 10-year agreement signed in 2016, Israel is allowed to receive military aid worth $3.3 billion annually from 2018, along with an additional $500 million per year for air defense systems.

Last month, Congress approved an additional $26 billion in aid to Israel, which includes $5 billion to enhance air defenses, along with "bundled" weapons shipments that do not require congressional oversight due to falling below the threshold.

While Israel's actions have led to the suspension of certain weapons shipments, the overall partnership between the United States and Israel remains robust.

Senator Jim Risch, a senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stated that millions in military aid, including joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs) used to upgrade conventional bombs into precision weapons, have been allocated for Israel.

Tank rounds, mortars, and armored tactical vehicles are all prepared and awaiting approval for shipment.

"This delay is likely more of a political signal to Israel to deter the use of high-payload munitions that have caused devastating civilian harm in Gaza, rather than a move to immediately impact the operational situation in Gaza," commented Ari Tolany, the director of the Security Assistance Monitor at the US-based Center for International Policy.

"We don't have a clear understanding of what Israel still has in its publicly available stockpile."

Despite the halt in the shipment of heavy weapons, an attack on Rafah remains probable and would result in further suffering for its traumatized population. Many have already been displaced multiple times, losing homes and family members, before seeking refuge in the city.

"They possess more than sufficient stockpiles of these weapons to launch an invasion of Rafah," stated human rights lawyer and University of Illinois Professor Francis Boyle.

"They've already entered Rafah through the Philadelphi Corridor, a demilitarized zone between Egypt and Rafah. Biden is essentially absolving responsibility for what appears to be a massacre akin to the Srebrenica massacre in 1995."